How to correctly predict match outcome 75% of the time

Studying a player's form is only one part of predicting who will come out on top in a tennis match. For instance, you cannot predict a tennis match based on a player's ranking. Statistical analysis has shown that only 55-60% of the time the higher ranked player wins. Particularly in the men's game, the depth of field in the top 100 is incredible. It is not uncommon to see the world number 15 defeated by the world number 85.

Recent match success is also a strong indicator. How well a player has performed in their previous two or three tournaments is important in deciding how well they may perform this week. Of course a player may reach the semi final in their last two tournaments and then lose in the first round this week! It is not a certainty the player will do well this week, but when combined with other indicators such as the surface rating, it can provide a strong estimate of how the match will turn out.

The modern game of tennis is dominated by the serve. So often a match is decided by just one break of serve in each set. Therefore calculating a player's ability to hold serve is an important factor in the match outcome. Andy Roddick is someone who holds serve very well. Not only does he have a very fast serve, which generates a lot of aces, he has a high percentage of first serves. This combination results in a large number of powerful serves. A lethal combination. Hence Roddick wins a lot of matches because of his huge serve. The actual serve isn't the only way he wins his service games, he must follow his serve up with his groundstrokes and volleys. So, a player's ability to hold serve is an important indicator in who will win a match. This must be compared with how well a player can return serve. A server is only as good as the returner. Someone like Lleyton Hewitt or Andy Murray have a very good record in returning serves. It is important to look not only at how well a player serves, but how well their opponent receives. The ATP's official website has several detailed tables of how well a player can hold serve and how well they can return.

To re-cap, here is a list, not exhaustive, of positive inidcators as to how a match may turn out:

• Win/Loss Ratio - how well they have done in their career
• Number of career titles
• Surface ability
• Recent match success
• Current round success - how well a player typically does in this round

Indicators which don't work are:

• Previous week success
• Best round at this tournament
• Head to Head
• Experience
• Ranking